Monday, April 20, 2020

Note in a forum re: my stock market speculations

Anyway, the market had its rally. Some pundits considered it a bear rally. Cramer, for example, has shown much mistrust of the bounce that reclaimed lost territory since late March. Most discussion has focused on the bifurcation between this rally and the actual dismal state of the economy. A common view is that there is always going to be a "dead cat bounce." If anything falls far enough, it will bounce. Others opine that maybe the government stimuli have altered risk in the market so that large companies have benefited and kept the market afloat. Computer trading based on technicals may also have kept the market up.
The sentiment in the news the last few days is decidedly dismal. Most stories seem to focus on the utter disarray of the economy. Likely here is where we might get the swing down to what is expected to be many the next leg. Market started out down, climbed a little, is down again today. Generally, I was noticing a sort of scalloping where the market moved against its opening, then at the end of the day moved back, and past its opening. The market makers had a start in the negative today, it has climbed, and now crescenting back. Hopefully it doesn't dip heavily at the end of the day.
Should those savings for retirement change their strategy. Is this really a new economic world. Some say the usual 60-40 portfolio is no longer the most viable option. Possibly buy and hold still is the best.  But I have never hears such draconian pronouncements of catastrophe as recently. 
In the past, brokers will say, "don't sell." They hold the hands of their customers through these times--naturally, they don't want to lose business. My perception is that some brokers do not really know how the economy works, some do.  But now there seems a slightly strange message in the air--"maybe it is not so crazy to go to cash." With so much of media theatre, its hard to say what is the quality of data or spin in any report. On the other, hand, it may not be a bad idea to look in a dispassionate way about how one chooses to plan for retirement. Again, this is meant more as musings rather than advice--my own projections of things going on.
On Mon, Apr 20, 2020 at 3:03 PM Gregory DeClue <gregdeclue@mailmt.com> wrote:
~Psychology Practice in Florida
Here’s an alternative perspective, tangential to what Damon wrote.



The federal government has deliberately taken half of the retirement income for Americans who utilized the products that were created for people to use as safe, secure, government-backed savings.  That is, savings or certificates in a bank or credit union, that are insured by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, for banks) or NCUA (National Credit Union Administration, for Savings and Loans).

Last year, I set up a new, federally insured SEP-IRA Certificate of Deposit (CD), which would earn 3% per year for 5 years.

This year, the Fed, following public pressure from Trump, has cut the interest rate so much that the same product (5-year CD) would earn 1.5% per year.

So, at a time when people need secure investments, the Fed, following public pressure from Trump, has cut such income in half.


There may, of course, be other reasons why the Fed has cut interest rates.  But the above is exactly the effect that the Fed created, on purpose.  They have deliberately cut the income in half, for those who choose to invest safely (low risk, low yield).



Take care of yourself and be generous with others,
Greg DeClue

Gregory DeClue, Ph.D., ABPP (forensic)
16443 Winburn Place
Sarasota, FL  34240-9228
phone 941-951-6674
gregdeclue@me.com
http://gregdeclue.myakkatech.com

Live Sustainably on a Habitable Planet

~Psychology Practice in Florida

even worse - the only way out of all this spending is to increase the inflation rate. Thus, not only will the income go down due to reduced interest rates, but inflation will result in a net loss of capital (for those investing in fixed rate instruments).
BB

Sunday, April 19, 2020


Psychology Practice in Florida
  It was Larry McMurtry who wrote the novel The Last Picture Show, about his youth in small-town Texas.

Yes.



On Friday, April 10, 2020, 11:34:56 AM CDT, John Auerbach <000009eba1592f75-dmarc-request@listserv.icors.org> wrote:


~Psychology Practice in Florida
Damon,

No problem on the Nassau-Suffolk thing.  I get fearful of all the false knowledge I think I have, so I now search the web a lot before saying things.  I recently learned that the famous line in a book review, “This is not a novel to be tossed aside lightly; it should be thrown with great force,” was penned not by Dorothy Parker but by Sidney Ziff.  But Dorothy Parker meant to write it.

Perhaps that you are right that all of us hate the places we are from, that all of us have an inner Herman Hesse (Beneath the Wheel) or Bruce Springsteen ("Baby this town rips the bones from back/It’s a death trap/It’s a suicide rap/We got to get out while we’re young”), but somehow I think that this statement is true largely of people who go into mental health fields, rather than of the public at large.  I have no research evidence for either of these contentions, nor for my contention that psychologists value separation and autonomy far more than do the population at large because of our need to get away from our backgrounds, but my understanding is that most people try to stay close to their families and places of origins.  And there is a perverse truth to this, even in me.  If I could afford to live in the New York area, I would consider moving back.  But I spent my college and graduate school years doing everything I could to stay as far away from home as I could, and I see some humor in the fact that first my parents and then the taxpayers of the State of New York paid for a very long and expensive education so that I could in fact run away from home.  And because I live in an university town—indeed, have done so ever since I was 18 (Providence, RI; Buffalo, NY, although it is too big to be just a university town; New Haven, CT; Johnson City, TN, home of East Tennessee State University; and now Gainesville, FL)—and have an academic career on the side, I am as close to perpetual studenthood as one can possibly be and still make a living.  

But most important, and with one crucial exception, to which I will get in a moment, I agree with you on the evaluation of Billy Joel.  A Gislander himself, Billy Joel always loomed large in the musical culture of the Gisland, especially after he became a star.  The line about going out and cruising the Miracle Mile in “It’s Still Rock And Roll To Me,” is, I believe, about the Miracle Mile shopping plaza on Northern Boulevard, between Roslyn and Manhasset.  At least, I have yet to find anyone to prove me wrong.  But I think it sign of divine justice that even Billy Joel hates his signature tune, “I Want You Just The Way Your Are.”  Now, OTOH, there is no better description of the ennui and decadence of a Long Island adolescence than his early song, “Captain Jack.”  It helped me get through, until “Born to Run” and Born to Run came along.

On your Peter Bogdanovich comments, however, I did what I always do—which is to check Wikipedia first.  He is not from Texas but from Kingston, NY, the widest spot in the road between Poughkeepsie and Albany, but definitely a strange place for the son of a Jewish mother and a Serbian father to grow up since it is not large enough to be an ethnic enclave and appears to be Anglo-Dutch in its origins, with inroads from Irish and Italian immigrants over time.  It was Larry McMurtry who wrote the novel The Last Picture Show, about his youth in small-town Texas.

John


On Apr 10, 2020, at 11:50 AM, Damon LaBarbera <00000051867784e1-dmarc-request@LISTSERV.ICORS.ORG> wrote:

~Psychology Practice in Florida

Notes from Underground

John,
Thanks for correcting me on the Nassau/Suffolk etymology mistake. I would have been sure I was correct if anyone but you had corrected me. Well, a shimmer of errors, can be expected in many a good post. As Emerson said, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin....etc. etc, you know the rest of the quote.

I am not sure what other pseudo knowledge my brain contains. For years, I told people that Jonathan Kozol had written an essay called "First Draft", in which he argued that the first draft of a paper, sometimes with unadulterated mistakes, was often the best copy. The essay does not exist, apparently.

RVC is of note for several reasons. It had more losses than nearly any other town in NY during 911 since many in Canter-Fitzgerald lived here. A child of one of the victims suicided in the last year. Also, both Howard Stern and Amy Schumer attended the local high school. RVC is the center of the Catholic diocese in this area, so ethnic mix is unusual. Back in the seventies the public high school and parochial high school were top hoopsters in the state, with the rival DeMatha in Maryland. One of Dematha starting five, considered the greatest high school team ever, is CFO of a panhandle town, after having graduated from Rollins College with all time record assists. I heard about it sitting next to him on a plane.

Do we dislike Long Island just because we were born here? Grade school can be horrible.  So many coming of age stories involve escape from home (e.g. Beneath the Wheel). Cinematically, consider Last Picture Show. Bogdanovich said (this may be apocrophyl as well) of his depiction of his small Texan birthplace, "Revenge is sweet." Possibly with a last name of Bogdanovich, life in a small Texan town was even harder. On the positive side, growing up in Long Island does develop a nose for ferreting out the pompous, or discerning patterns of status seeking.

A puzzling aspect of Long Island is the fondness for Billy Joel. Very possibly he is a great artists. I don't get it though, and somehow see the same pudgy mediocrity as a Leroy Nieman. The article from McSweeney's outlines the narcissism.  


Billy Joel Plays “Piano Man” for the First Time At the Bar He Based the ...
Billy Joel sits at the piano in a smoke-filled bar in 1973. It’s 9 o’clock on a Saturday and he’s just finished ...





On Thursday, April 9, 2020, 10:50:23 PM CDT, John Auerbach <000009eba1592f75-dmarc-request@listserv.icors.org> wrote:


~Psychology Practice in Florida
Damon,

Thanks for your post.  Indeed I do know where Rockville Centre is, since it is due south of Roslyn, and I am sorry you are holed up in a basement there.

When I was growing up, Long Island was one of the epicenters of the culture of narcissism.  Your post would suggest that little has changed in the intervening 45 years, every person for himself or herself.  My dissertation, and my early publications, were on narcissism.  That choice of topic would not be an accident.  I still love Christopher Lasch’s The Culture of Narcissism for giving voice to everything I felt growing up there.  

I also got a laugh out of your comments on the etymologies of the words Nassau and Suffolk, the names of the two counties that make up the part of Long Island that is not inside New York City.  For those who do not know, Nassau was originally a town and then a province in Medieval Germany; its rulers eventually became founders of the Netherlands as an independent nation and, after the Glorious Revolution of 1688, rulers of England.  Suffolk was a county in the southern part of East Anglia, where the southern folk lived, back before the time of William the Conqueror.  The East Anglian county where the northern folk lived was, wait for it, Norfolk.  

Anyway, I am wishing you the best on your sojourn in the basement.  It’s a bit crazy everywhere in our great land these days, I figure.

John



On Apr 9, 2020, at 10:04 PM, Damon LaBarbera <00000051867784e1-dmarc-request@LISTSERV.ICORS.ORG> wrote:

~Psychology Practice in Florida
Hi,
I am in Rockville Centre. RVC is the south shore of Long Island. Really though, I am less in Rockville Centre than in the mothy basement described. 
Jennifer, Suffolk is a beautiful place and has, as Gene noted, Islip airport, a friendly convivial place that is good counterpoint to LaGuardia airport's constant disruption. The Greenpoint retirement home was nice and pastoral—I had relatives there. It overlooked Long Island sound. Some of  the first deaths here were there. Suffolk has had many cases—hopefully they are plateauing.  The residents of Suffolk (like “Nassau” an Indian name) have protested the New Yorker city folk fleeing to relative safety there. New Yorker against fellow New Yorker, it is a disturbing thought, like seeing lizards fighting in a terrarium. 
Seth, the word Nunley’s gives a frisson. Whoever owned it provided much entertainment for a generation of children. There were hand roller scooters on the track, bumper boats and the Merry Go Round with rings to pull on as you swung by, held in place by leather lap belts stretched thin by time. And what about that  eerie fortune telling gypsy manikin with a massive nose in a glass booth. It had a Chucky movie weirdness to it. If you inserted, what, a quarter, the gypsy would creak into action. Also, recall the wooden alleys where you throw the wooden balls up the ramp, and the assortment of distracted delinquents hired to operate the rides. 
John, for Long Island in the seventies, a photojournalist is  Mary Meisler. Somehow, the island seems to connotate the most tawdry in American culture--social climbing, mindless ambition, and energetic pursuit of the pointless.  Goodbye Columbus might as well occurred here. It always shocked me when looking at Exner’s work to see he was from Long Island University. What good might come out of Long Island University! Over time, though, it looks more benign—maybe because I am in a cellar. Plus, we now we live in a place known for “Florida Man.” I won’t say more for fear of the kettle calling the fire black, or whatever the phrase is.  And in reality, many great minds were spawned here. 
Gene, you lived in Freeport.  Ever go to the Calderone Theatre? On Sunrise Highway. By the time I came along, it was a rock venue. But in its day, it was high toned. Frank Calderone was interesting. My guess is second generation Italian. He not only helped run that theatre, but was later,  of all things, the director of what is now WHO (World Health Organization). His wife was the first head of planned parenthood--she became a physician somewhat later, from University of Rochester possibly? She sued the AMA regarding discussion of birth control by physicians and won. The couple frequented the Calderone Theatre along with cronies such as Steichen and Carl Sandburg.  The archives are online with Hofstra Long Island Studies.  Photos of the theatre construction are in those archives. The prize named after Calderone for public health was recently won by the president of University of Miami. Maybe Calderone made enough money to subsidize his own prize. There are Calderone’s about and sometimes I ask them if they are related, but none so far.
I think you are exactly right, Bruce, on the state of the market. Some traders or programs are enjoying a ride up, but there is much volatility. In 2009 there were two legs down, which is my default assumption.  I occasionally worry though, that some Morgan or Hunt-like robber baron has manipulated the press to drive the market down and then snap up the shares. Serves us right for saving!

Damon L



On Wednesday, April 8, 2020, 02:13:32 PM CDT, Gene Schulze <000009c7482bd123-dmarc-request@listserv.icors.org> wrote:


~Psychology Practice in Florida
Damon, I was born in Oceanside and raised in Freeport, graduated from Freeport High. During WWII when cars were not allowed to drive to Jones Beach because of the gas rationing, we rode our bikes there.  Fond memories of my high school days. But now the NY times is predicting that Nassau and Suffolk counties will be the next hotbeds of Coronavirus. Here in Manatee county things are not too bad so far. I used to drive a Taxi in Baldwin and knew every street there.  

If you want to escape back to Florida, don't forget there's the Islip MacArthur airport.  I could see it from the air when I was flown in and out of the New Haven CT airport.